Today our series on the upcoming elections focuses on perhaps the single most important voting block: independents. This is the group that helped give us President Obama. And according to this article, it could be the group that helps give us a Republican Congress next Tuesday:

http://www.csmonitor.com/USA/Politics/The-Vote/2010/1025/Why-independent-voters-are-abandoning-the-Democrats

As the article notes:

“The latest bit of news confirming this trend is a new Politico/George Washington University Battleground poll. This survey, released Monday, finds that independents are favoring Republicans over Democrats by a 14-point margin. Self-described independents may have backed Barack Obama in 2008, but they aren’t happy with much of what Democrats have accomplished since then. Sixty-two percent of independents have an unfavorable view of President Obama’s health-care reform legislation, according to the Politico/GWU poll. Sixty-six percent say the administration’s efforts to get the economy going again aren’t working.”

If these numbers hold until Tuesday, President Obama is going to to receive quite a rebuke at the voting booth.

Today we continue our series on the upcoming election with another discussion about polls:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/generic_congressional_vote-901.html

The generic ballot is one of the most important questions in any poll. Essentially, it asks people to set aside names and personalities and decide which party they would probably support in the current climate. Traditionally, this has been one of the best poll questions to watch because it measures people’s moods without regard to specific issues or specific candidates. As a result, it’s often been shown to be an accurate predictor of how the country as a whole will vote.

And what does the realclearpolitics.com average show on the generic ballot question? A Republican lead of nearly 7 points. That’s a huge lead since the country is typically fairly evenly divided. And it’s more proof that Tuesday should be a big day for Republicans.

Today we continue our series on the upcoming election. And we do so by focusing on something every voter should know: how to read a poll:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/president_obama_job_approval-1044.html

A lot is made about polls. But most people don’t know enough about them to judge them. Take for example the recent Newsweek poll that came out. It gave President Obama a 54-40 rating. Not bad. But here’s what you need to keep in mind: most political strategists put more faith in the cumulative polling average than any one poll. So if you click on the link above, it will take you to the realclearpolitics.com site where several polls are listed and an average is given. When you look at all the polls, you see that Newsweek is way out of sorts with the other polls. Almost all the other polls have Obama’s approval rating way below 50%. And when you average all the polls together, including Newsweek’s, you find that Obama’s overall approval average is only 46%. That’s the number you should pay attention to…not the Newsweek poll.

And if Obama is at 46% on Election Day, that spells bad news for Democrats.

The last few days we’ve been talking about the upcoming election in Texas. But there are other important elections in the nation that will impact Texas. And none more important than Nevada:

http://tpmdc.talkingpointsmemo.com/2010/10/angle-ahead-in-nevada—-will-it-last.php

Senator Harry Reid is the Democratic leader of the Senate. He has been a staunch supporter of the Obama agenda. And he’s on the verge of losing re-election:

“As one example, Rasmussen now has Angle ahead 50%-47%, after Reid had led by 48%-47% in late September. Mason-Dixon gives Angle a lead of 48%-46%, compared to a 46%-44% Reid edge in early September. On the other hand, Public Policy Polling (D) had Reid ahead by 49%-48%. The polls are all fairly close together, of course, but for the most part Angle has been ahead in the most recent surveys. She’s led (narrowly) in seven of the eight public polls released in October. As a result, the TPM Poll Average currently gives her an edge of 48.5%-47.4%.”

What do these poll numbers tell us? When the most powerful man in the Senate is about to lose, it tells us that the American people are about to deliver a referendum on the Obama administration and the country is about to move back to the right. And that’s good news for Texas.

Today is an important day for all Texans: it’s the beginning of early voting.

This is the process that allows people to vote before Election Day. The theory is that with more opportunities to vote, more people will vote. And I certainly hope that is true this year. With all that is at stake in the country and the world, we all need to let our voices be heard.

As readers of this blog know, I’m convinced that we need another four years of Governor Perry. I endorse him and ask that you join me in making him governor again. We need his steady hand at the wheel during these challenging economic times.

Earlier this week we talked about a big endorsement from the former mayor of San Antonio; today we’re talking about the big endorsement of the current mayor of Dallas:

http://trailblazersblog.dallasnews.com/archives/2010/10/dallas-mayor-tom-leppert-endor.html

Mayor Tom Leppert’s endorsement of Rick Perry is a big deal because Leppert is viewed as a successful mayor of a major city and a successful former corporate executive. It’s also a big deal because Leppert holds a non-partisan office. So for him to break away from his non-partisan job to endorse a particular candidate must mean he has a very strong conviction about this race. And what reason did Leppert give when announcing that he intended to endorse Governor Perry for another term as governor?

“He understands how to bring in businesses.”

Yes, he does. And we need another four years of that kind of business leadership at the helm in Austin.

Ed Garza served two terms as Mayor of San Antonio and is not known for endorsing Republicans. Yet he’s now endorsed Rick Perry:

http://www.texasinsider.org/?p=35251

Why is Garza endorsing Perry? The economy:

“’Gov. Perry has upheld his proven track record in bringing Texas to the forefront of the global economy, having helped provide the people of this city & state the jobs and opportunities they need to prosper,’ said former mayor of San Antonio, Ed Garza, endorsing Gov. Rick Perry today at a grassroots event in San Antonio.”

When the mayor of Bill White’s hometown is endorsing Perry, it’s bad news for Democrats. But it’s great news for Texas. We need Rick Perry.

Here is the real issue in the Texas governor’s election: the economy.

http://www.kilgorenewsherald.com/news/2010-10-02/Front_Page/Economist_Texas_strong_in_weak_US_economy.html

As this senior official at the Federal Reserve Bank points out, Texas is in a very strong position economically. And not many states can say that:

“After a job loss of about –3.4 percent in 2009, Texas job growth was 2.8 percent through July. It will likely slow to about 2.4 percent for the remainder of 2010 and 2 percent in 2011. ‘The recession hit Texas hard in 2009, but the economy is growing moderately in 2010,’ he said. ‘Job growth is coming back to Texas. We should, over the course of the coming year, recover all the jobs lost in the recession.’”

And why is it that our state economy is so strong? In part it’s because our state leaders have created a low-tax, high-growth environment. And Rick Perry has been a big part of that.

Another reason why Perry is leading the race for governor and why he’ll be re-elected in November? Immigration:

http://www.kens5.com/news/KENS-5-Belo-Texas-Poll-Perry-leads-White-on-immigration-issues-104460353.html

According to this poll, Perry maintains a sizable lead over White when it comes to dealing with illegal immigration. According to this poll, the voters of this state know who is the best candidate to handle this issue:

“We asked which candidate people think would better handle illegal immigration. According to our poll of likely voters, Perry wins that question by a margin of 15 points: 51 percent for Perry, 36 percent for White.”

What’s interesting to me is that Perry’s lead in the poll comes from his leadership on the issue. Even though it’s a federal issue, immigration is something the governor has confronted. His creative ideas–like deploying DPS officers and Texas Rangers to the border–have helped make our border more secure.

It’s just one more reason why Perry will and should be re-elected in November.

Yesterday we looked at Rick Perry’s lead in the polls. Today we look at an even more important lead: money.

http://www.dallasnews.com/sharedcontent/dws/news/politics/local/stories/100510dnpolpolcash.335cf39.html

Much was made early in this race about Bill White’s ability to raise money and keep up with Perry. Not so much. It turns out Perry goes into the homestretch with a huge advantage in fundraising. Perry just picked up $8 million in the last three months. As the article notes:

“The fundraising blitz leaves Perry with $10 million in the bank going into the final weeks of the campaign. Democratic challenger Bill White collected $4.7 million in the latest period and has $2.75 million in cash on hand.”

So Perry has raised more and has more on hand for the final weeks of the campaign. Why is that? I believe fundraising is a form of voting. People are voting with their dollars and supporting Perry because they know he is the best choice for Texas. And on Election Day, they’ll vote for him again in the voting booth.

Today we continue our series on the Texas governor’s race and why Rick Perry will win. And we do so by looking at a brand new poll that was just released today:

http://www.kens5.com/news/KENS-5-Belo-Poll-Perry-lead-widens-as-election-day-looms-104319333.html

The poll shows Perry with his biggest lead yet: 50-36. Beyond that, two items in this poll are striking.

First, the poll was conducted using only “likely voters.” This is important because many polls sample “registered voters.” But not all registered voters are likely to vote. And in this cycle, with the unpopularity of the Obama administration as the backdrop for the election, the likely voters are going to skew Republican. In other words, I think this poll is more accurate than most.

Second, the poll shows why Perry is doing well. As the poll’s director put it: “Our poll shows 52 percent of voters think the state is heading in the right direction.”

If most Texans think that Texas is heading in the right direction, then Perry is going to be fine on Election Day. That’s bad news for Bill White. And good news for Texas.